Meta’s multibillion dollar AI strategy overhaul creates culture clash

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg was so optimistic last year about his company’s Llama family of artificial intelligence models that he predicted they would become the “most advanced in the industry” and “bring the benefits of AI to everyone.”

But after including a whole section on Llama in his opening remarks during Meta’s earnings call in January of this year, he mentioned the brand name only once on the latest call in October. The company’s obsession with its open-source large language model has given way to a very different approach to AI, one focused around a multibillion-dollar hiring spree to bring in top industry talent that could help Meta take on the likes of OpenAI, Google and Anthropic.

As 2025 comes to a close, Meta’s strategy remains scattershot, according to insiders and industry experts, feeding the perception that the company has fallen further behind its top AI rivals, whose models are rapidly gaining adoption in the consumer and enterprise markets.

Meta is pursuing a new Llama successor and frontier AI model, codenamed Avocado, CNBC has learned. People with knowledge of the matter said many within the company were expecting the model to be released before the end of this year, but that the plan now is for that to happen in the first quarter of 2026. The model is wrestling with various training-related performance testing intended to ensure the system is well received when it eventually debuts, said the people, who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak on the matter.

“Our model training efforts are going according to plan and have had no meaningful timing changes,” a Meta spokesperson said in a statement.

With its stock underperforming the broader tech sector this year and badly trailing Google parent Alphabet, Wall Street is looking for a sense of direction and a path to a return on investment after Meta spent $14.3 billion in June to hire Scale AI founder Alexandr Wang and a handful of his top engineers and researchers. Four months after that announcement, which included Meta purchasing a big stake in Scale, the social media company raised its 2025 guidance for capital expenditures to between $70 billion and $72 billion from a prior range of $66 billion to $72 billion.

“In many ways, Meta has been the opposite of Alphabet, where it entered the year as an AI winner and now faces more questions around investment levels and ROI,” analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets wrote in a November note to clients. The firm recommends buying both stocks.

At the heart of Meta’s challenge is the sustained dominance of its core business: digital advertising.

Even with annual sales in excess of $160 billion, Meta’s ad targeting business, driven by massive improvements in AI and the popularity of Instagram, is growing revenue north of 20% a year. Investors have lauded the company for using AI to bolster the strength of its cash cow and to make the organization more efficient and less bloated.

But Zuckerberg has much grander ambitions, and the new guard he’s brought in to push the future vision of AI has no background in online ads. The 41-year-old founder, with a net worth of more than $230 billion, has suggested that if Meta doesn’t take big swings, it risks becoming an afterthought in a world that’s poised to be defined by AI.

Until recently, Meta’s unique position in AI was the open-source nature of its Llama models. Unlike other AI models, Meta’s technology was made freely available so third-party researchers and others could access the tools and ultimately improve them.

“Today, several tech companies are developing leading closed models,” Zuckerberg wrote in a blog post in July 2024. “But open source is quickly closing the gap.”

He’s since started changing his tune. Zuckerberg hinted over the summer that Meta was considering shaking up its approach to open source after the April release of Llama 4, which failed to captivate developers. Zuckerberg said in July that, “We’ll need to be rigorous about mitigating these risks and careful about what we choose to open source.”

Avocado, when it’s eventually made available, could be a proprietary model, according to people familiar with the matter. That means outside developers wouldn’t be able to freely download its so-called weights and related software components. 

Some at Meta were upset that the R1 model released by Chinese AI lab DeepSeek earlier this year incorporated pieces of Llama’s architecture, the people said, further underscoring the risks of open source and hammering home the idea that the company should overhaul its strategy.

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