US state tariff bills rise as Trump faces midterms affordability fight

New analysis of U.S. Census data shows that states across the U.S. where key midterm elections will take place this year paid over $134 billion in tariffs in the period since President Donald Trump began implementing widespread trade duties in March 2025 through last November. In all, the U.S. Census data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide showed a total of $199 billion in tariffs paid by states during that time period.

Trump has called affordability a “Democratic hoax,” and in recent testimony before Congress, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariffs “do not cause inflation.”

But Trump’s tariffs and affordability are expected to be factors in the upcoming midterm election cycle. Recent CNBC survey data from the American consumer and pricing data show that the affordability issues are real and many voters have soured on the economy. A January poll from The New York Times and Siena University found that 54% of voters oppose Trump’s tariffs. Some members of the GOP are starting to break with their leaders over the tariffs issue, joining Democrats on Tuesday in a vote to defeat a rule that would have prohibited the House from challenging tariffs issued by Trump. The House is expected to vote Wednesday on a measure to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada introduced by Rep. Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y.

“Americans struggling with affordability rightly blame tariffs for higher prices on many everyday purchases,” said Dan Anthony, executive director of the We Pay the Tariffs small business coalition and president of Trade Partnership Worldwide. “The president could eliminate tens of billions in taxes in the states that will determine the 2026 elections. He just doesn’t want to,” Anthony said.

Top states and tariff bills

• California: $38 billion
• Texas: $21 billion
• Michigan: $13 billion
• Georgia: $12 billion
• Illinois: $9.6 billion
• Ohio: $6.5 billion
• Pennsylvania: $6.3 billion
• North Carolina: $5 billion
• South Carolina: $5.2 billion
• Kentucky: $4 billion

This year, all 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 seats in the U.S. Senate are up for election. The Republicans hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress. Democrats need to gain four seats to win a majority in the Senate. To keep control of the House, the Republican Party cannot afford to lose more than two seats.

Midterm elections primary season begins March 3 with voters heading to the polls in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

Small businesses across America hit hard by tariffs

Small business owners across U.S. states are speaking out about the impact the tariffs have had on their businesses, some as part of a new YouTube video-led campaign called Small Businesses Against Tariffs that launched on Wednesday in an effort to raise awareness.

Many small businesses are seeking to counter rhetoric about tariffs being paid by other companies rather than on Main Street, as well as the idea tariffs are being paid back to Americans, making their case on how tariffs actually work and who pays the price — in their view, American small businesses, workers, and consumers.

Chris Gibbs, a Shelby County, Ohio, farmer of corn, soybeans, wheat, alfalfa hay, and a 90-head cow-calf operation, said the tariffs have hit him two-fold. “My operating costs are soaring,” said Gibbs. “Tariffs on steel, aluminum and lumber raised the cost on anything I do. From building buildings, barns, buying machinery, trailers, wheels, and parts, and even my fertilizer,” he said.

Gibbs said the trade war has also impacted his ability to sell his crops.

“In 2018, this president destroyed trade relationships, and at that moment, just like Carter in 1980 with the Russian embargo, we became an unreliable supplier. This is where we’re at, and we have not recovered,” Gibbs said. “Brazil is now the lead supplier of soybeans to China. Trump pushed President Xi into the arms of Brazil and they never left.”

Promised agricultural buys were a big part of the first trade war between the U.S. and China. China failed to meet its obligation in agricultural purchases. In 2025, China promised to increase orders, but trade data show there has been no significant pickup.

Noel Hacegaba, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, told CNBC it saw a 95% decline year-over-year in soybean exports to China.

“China is now consuming most of its soybeans from places like Brazil,” said Hacegaba. “The United States produces about 20 percent of the world’s soybeans. Brazil is now at 40 percent, largely in part because China shifting its buys to Brazil. We’re doing everything that we can as a major export gateway to help our exporters move their product more efficiently, but we need…