Most cyclones hit hard and fast, but Alfred’s approach has been coloured by slow, suspenseful movement.
Here’s how the cyclone and the emergency response unfolded.
Saturday, February 22
Our timeline starts a fortnight ago, on February 22, when a tropical low began swirling 730 kilometres north-east of Cairns.
At this stage, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) warned the system would likely travel south, but it was too early to accurately forecast.
There was also no clear threat, but the system had found itself on officials’ radars.
Friday, February 28
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from February 28. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
Perhaps setting the tone for its journey as a whole, Cyclone Alfred was monitored for almost a week before it first prompted a warning.
By this point, it had made its way down the coast of Queensland and was more than 800 kilometres offshore.
Despite the distance, locales from Townsville to K’gari were feeling the strong winds it whipped up.
Campers on K’gari were advised to be prepared to leave as the gusts threatened to produce 4-5 metre swells and abnormally high tides.
Cyclone Alfred is already creating a powerful swell, much to the delight of surfers off the Bundaberg coast. (ABC News: Johanna Marie)
At that stage, the latest modelling suggested Alfred would likely stay offshore.
But as we now know, the weather system had other plans.
Sunday, March 2
A week after the system first formed, modelling indicated Alfred would turn toward the coastline.
At a press conference, Queensland Premier David Crisafulli said the state had entered a “precautionary and preparation phase”.
A flood watch was put in place from the Mary River to the southern border and beyond, but the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) held back from issuing a tropical cyclone warning.
Monday, March 3
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from March 3. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
By Monday, the BOM had hashed out more details on Alfred’s path.
It would likely become the first tropical cyclone system to cross the stretch of coastline near the border between Queensland and New South Wales in more than 50 years.
Available modelling suggested the cyclone was likely to make landfall late on Thursday or Friday, roughly between the Sunshine Coast and Brisbane, as a category two system.
With the cyclone’s western approach, south-east Queensland’s island and bay communities, as well as those in low-lying areas on the Sunshine Coast, were asked to consider whether to leave.
The bureau warned the southern flank of the system would cause the greatest impact, with destructive winds and heavy rainfall lashing areas in its path.
Shipping operations off Mooloolaba were suspended and three cruise ships off the coast prepared to port as soon as possible.
Loading…
Tuesday, March 4
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from March 4. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
Modelling suggested the rain would get worse from Thursday to Saturday.
A flood watch remained in place for areas from the Mary River, the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, the Brisbane River catchment and Logan and Albert River catchments.
Gold Coast Acting Mayor Donna Gates warned residents to prepare to evacuate as modelling suggested the region could experience its worst weather event in 70 years.
Sporting events, including the WPGA Championship and the AFL season opener, were called off or postponed.
By the afternoon, the first official cyclone warning had been issued for Queensland and New South Wales.
Wednesday, March 5
Cyclone Alfred’s forecast path from March 5. (Supplied: Bureau of Meteorology)
On Wednesday morning, it appeared likely the cyclone could cross the coast at high tide on Thursday night.
Daily rainfall totals were forecast to reach up to 400 millimetres in some areas.
Queensland officials made the call to close more than 500 schools from Thursday and suspend public transport from Wednesday night.
More than 100 schools in northern New South Wales would be closed.
Elective surgeries scheduled for Thursday and Friday were cancelled.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the Australian Defence Force had been engaged.
The federal government confirmed it had pre-positioned heavy-lifting helicopters from the National Aerial Firefighting Fleet to support the New South Wales and Queensland governments.
Residents in Brisbane’s bayside areas were told to prepare to evacuate.
Massive waves were spotted on the Gold Coast on Tuesday. (Supplied: Dyhann Melling )
By Wednesday evening, forecasts of Alfred’s landfall had been adjusted to early Friday morning.
The BOM advised Alfred’s western edge had already begun impacting the east coast.
With the cyclone moving over warm waters, forecasters were not able to rule out the possibility Alfred would become a category three system.
Some businesses began…
Read More: Look back at Cyclone Alfred’s suspenseful approach toward south-east Queensland