McDonald’s, Chili’s, Taco Bell lean into value meals in 2025

“Value” was the buzzword du jour for restaurant executives that lasted all year — and it will likely stick around in 2026, too.

Over the last year and a half, diners, particularly those who make less than $40,000 a year, have been eating out less frequently and spending less money when they do. Higher costs, like rent and child care, have put pressure on consumers’ wallets. Plus, uncertainty about the economy, President Donald Trump’s higher tariffs, layoff fears and immigration crackdowns have all hurt their willingness to spend.

As diners strain under pressures on their wallets, restaurants, takeout and food delivery is the category where discretionary spending is most likely to fall, according to the EY-Parthenon U.S. Consumer Sentiment Survey. Nearly a quarter of respondents said that they would first cut spending on eating out, ahead of entertainment, travel and home maintenance.

It’s no surprise, then, that data from Black Box Intelligence shows that traffic to restaurants open at least a year fell every month this year through November, with one exception: July. That month, guest count ticked up 0.1%.

To win back a shrinking pool of diners, restaurants have responded by doubling down on efforts to offer diners more “value.” In the fast-food segment, that means combo meals and value menus.

For casual-dining chains, value has translated into appetizer deals, marketing that compares the narrowing price gap with fast food, and a focus on the in-restaurant experience. And fast-casual chains have responded by emphasizing their quality while trying to stay away from the so-called value wars.

“This is the most intense discount environment since the Great Recession,” Cava co-founder and CEO Brett Schulman said on the company’s earnings conference call in November.

To understand the industry’s evolving value strategy, look no further than McDonald’s, the largest U.S. restaurant chain by sales and often a bellwether for the consumer economy.

The burger giant briefly became the poster child for higher fast-food prices in 2024, leading the company to make a rare public rebuttal against social media posts claiming that its prices had more than doubled since 2019. But that didn’t stop consumers from viewing its prices as too high, which put the company on the defensive. In 2024, it launched a $5 value meal in the U.S. in a bid to attract the low-income consumers who had been cutting back on their visits.

As the value gap closed between casual-dining chains like Chili’s and fast-food restaurants, McDonald’s and its peers haven’t benefitted from the spending pullback the way they typically would when consumer spending falls, according to Moody’s analyst Michael Zuccaro.

This year, McDonald’s further stepped up its emphasis on value. It extended the $5 value meal months longer than expected and added a buy one, get one for $1 deal for select menu items in January. In September, the chain brought back its Extra Value Meals, which save customers 15% on combo meals compared with buying the entree, fries and drink separately.

The chain’s efforts have succeeded in winning back some customers, plus attracting new diners. In the third quarter, it reported U.S. same-store sales growth of 2.4%.

“I think sometimes there’s this idea that value only matters to low-income [consumers],” CEO Chris Kempczinski said on the company’s earnings call in early November. “But value matters to everybody, whether you’re upper income, middle income, lower income, feeling like you’re getting good value for your dollar is important.”

Plus, McDonald’s has other promotions that also seem to offer value. The chain is currently offering a Grinch Meal, which comes with an entree, dill pickle McShaker fries, a drink and collectible socks.

“This time of year, you’ve got promotional things that you can do that really promotes value. You can get a free pair of socks,” said Jay Bandy, president of Goliath Consulting Group, which has worked with Church’s Chicken and Zaxby’s, among others.

McDonald’s fast-food rivals have followed its lead, offering their own more sophisticated value options for price-conscious customers. For example, Yum Brands’ Taco Bell followed up the introduction of its $7 Luxe Cravings boxes in 2024 by adding $5 and $9 versions earlier this year.

“The numbers that I’ve seen is [Taco Bell has] converted a lot of their customers to the higher-price boxes, and that’s what you want. If you can’t grow your traffic, you’re getting them to stop spending $7 and start spending $9,” Technomic analyst Rich Shank told CNBC.

Broadly, operators have to balance discounts that will attract customers with the razor-thin margins common in the…