Market in Sea of Red, Bitcoin Price Seen Diving to $80K

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market is a sea of red, with bitcoin trading at three-month lows under $88,000 and the CoinDesk 20 Index down more than 10% in 24 hours. There are several catalysts for the swoon, including risk-off sentiment in traditional markets and influence from memecoins, especially the recent trading in TRUMP and LIBRA.

As we discussed Monday, market makers attending the Consensus Hong Kong conference last week were worried the memecoin frenzy had sucked liquidity from the productive crypto sub-sectors, leaving the broad market vulnerable.

Another reason is President Donald Trump’s inaction. Although he made significant promises in the lead-up to the elections, concrete action has been scarce. The anticipated strategic BTC reserve remains absent, and even state-level reserves are proving challenging to implement.

“The industry is still waiting for this to manifest in a tangible way in the form of measures such as a mooted Bitcoin Strategic Reserve,” Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO at Mercuryo told CoinDesk. “In the meantime, sentiment has been hit hard by the biggest ever hack at the Bybit exchange, leaking 401,000 ETH, and a memecoin sector plagued with high-profile pump and dump schemes.”

Lastly, renewed concerns about the U.S. economy are zapping demand for riskier assets.

“There is also some concern about the slowdown in U.S. growth since last week’s U.S. Services PMI release, the lowest in 22 months and consistent with GDP growth tracking at 0.6% only,” Nansen’s principal research analyst Aurelie Barthere said. “Our Nansen Risk Barometer also just turned Risk-off from Neutral today.”

Together, they sent BTC diving out of its two-month-long range play between $90,000 and $110,000. Technical analysis theory suggests it could drop to $70,000, though the maximum open interest in BTC put options listed on Deribit sits at the $80,000 strike, indicating that this level could provide some support.

What could stabilize prices? Perhaps an announcement from Trump regarding a strategic reserve or a sharp reversal by the Nasdaq 100. However, that index has fallen below its 50-day SMA, while the yen, a risk-aversion signal, continues to strengthen against G7 currencies, including the dollar.

The next major catalysts for risk assets are Nvidia’s earnings on Feb. 26 and core PCE inflation on Feb. 28. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
• Macro
  • Feb. 25, 10:00 a.m.: The Conference Board (CB) releases February’s Consumer Confidence Index.
    • CB Consumer Confidence Est. 102.5 vs. Prev. 104.1
  • Feb. 25, 1:00 p.m.: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin delivers a speech titled “Inflation Then and Now.”
  • Feb. 25, 7:30 p.m.: The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases January’s Consumer Price Index.
    • Monthly CPI Indicator Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.5%
  • Feb. 26, 10:00 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases January’s New Residential Sales report.
    • New Home Sales Est. 0.68M vs. Prev. 0.698M
    • New Home Sales MoM Prev. 3.6%
  • Feb. 26-27: 2025’s first G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting (Cape Town).
• Earnings
  • Feb. 25: ​​Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, $-0.17
  • Feb. 25: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market, $-0.09
  • Feb. 26: MARA Holdings (MARA), post-market, $-0.13
  • Feb. 26: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market

Token Events

• Governances votes & calls
  • Ampleforth DAO is voting on reducing the Flash Mint fee to 0.5% and the Flash Redeem fee to 5% to increase the system’s adaptability.
  • DYdX DAO is discussing the establishment of a DYDX buyback program. Its initial step would allocate 25% of the dYdX’s protocol net revenue to buy back token.
  • Frax DAO is discussing upgrading the protocol by renaming FXS to FRAX, making it the gas token on Fraxtal, implementing the Frax North Star Hardfork, and introducing a Tail Emission Plan with gradually decreasing emissions, among other enhancements.
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 28: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $30.21 million.
  • Mar. 1: DYdX to unlock 1.14% of circulating supply worth $5.36 million.
  • Mar. 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 6.48% of circulating supply worth $11.86 million.
  • Mar. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 0.74% of circulating supply worth $61.32 million.
  • Mar. 7: Kaspa (KAS) to unlocked 0.63% of circulating supply worth $14.02 million.
  • Mar. 8: Berachain (BERA) to unlock 9.28% of circulating supply worth $61.6 million.
  • Mar. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.93% of circulating supply worth $69.89 million.
• Token Listings
  • Feb. 25: Zoo (ZOO) to be listed on KuCoin.
  • Feb. 25: Ethena (ENA) to be listed on Bithumb.
  • Feb. 26: Moonwell (WELL) to be listed on Kraken.
  • Feb. 27: Venice token (VVV) to be listed on Kraken.
  • Feb. 28: Worldcoin (WLD) to be listed on Kraken.

Conferences:

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