Tuesday briefing: Where Gaza’s fragile ceasefire stands – and what it will take

Good morning. The first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza expired over the weekend – and now, the only thing stopping the resumption of Israel’s assault on the territory is the will of Benjamin Netanyahu. That is the bleak reality for the hostages still alive in Gaza, and the Palestinian civilians there who were subjected to a new aid embargo on Sunday. Last night, the Israeli government was reported to be planning to ratchet the blockade up further – with a programme of measures referred to as the “hell plan”.

When the ceasefire was agreed in January, the theory was that the first phase would provide space for negotiations over a more durable truce. But those talks simply have not happened. Israel is pushing for the release of more hostages in an extension to the first phase – a step that Hamas, fearing the loss of its only source of leverage, refuses to countenance. Both sides are now making preparations for the resumption of violence.

The question now is whether there is any way to return to the agreed track – and whether the White House is prepared to impose the kind of pressure that might bring it about. In today’s newsletter, Julian Borger, the Guardian’s senior international correspondent reporting from Jerusalem, explains why there is such pessimism about that happening. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Ukraine | Donald Trump has suspended delivery of all US military aid to Ukraine, blocking billions in crucial shipments as the White House piles pressure on Ukraine to sue for peace with Vladimir Putin. The Trump administration was earlier reported to be drawing up a plan to restore ties with Russia and lift sanctions on the Kremlin.

2. Education | Labour is preparing major changes to special educational needs provision in English schools, as individual councils raise the alarm over debts running into hundreds of millions of pounds. With councils currently paying to send many children to private schools because of a lack of adequate local options, the government is believed to be considering measures that would prioritise state provision.

3. Tariffs | China and Canada unveiled retaliatory measures against the US after Donald Trump imposed his sweeping tariffs plan on Tuesday, despite warnings it could spark an escalating trade war. The new US tariffs stand at 25% against goods from Canada and Mexico and 20% against those from China.

4. Obesity | More than half of adults and a third of children and young people worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050, posing an “unparalleled threat” of early death and enormous strain on healthcare systems, a report warns. There are now 2.11 billion adults aged 25 or above who are overweight or obese, against 731 million in 1990.

5. Art | The self-taught Scottish painter Jack Vettriano, who became hugely popular despite being shunned by critics, has been found dead at his apartment in Nice in the south of France, his publicist has said. He was 73.

In depth: ‘The only person with the leverage to stop a return to war is Donald Trump’

The ceasefire, which began on 19 January, came after months of agonising negotiations. When it finally came, the deal set out a mechanism that would see the release of 25 living hostages and the bodies of eight others who died in captivity. In exchange, Israel has freed more than 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

Now, though, any apparent momentum created by that progress appears illusory. “Netanyahu never wanted the second phase to happen,” Julian Borger said. “At this point, it looks like the only person with the leverage to stop a return to war is Donald Trump.”

What happened during the first phase?

The ceasefire has largely held – but with significant wobbles. Israel has accused Hamas of chaotic handovers for propaganda purposes that put the living hostages in danger, and came close to bringing the deal to an end when it was discovered that it handed over someone else’s body instead of Shiri Bibas, who was 32 when she was abducted with her two children on 7 October 2023 and became a symbol of the campaign to get the hostages out.

Meanwhile, Hamas has accused Israel of letting significantly less aid than promised into Gaza – and of attacks that violate the deal. Gaza’s health ministry said on Sunday that 116 people have been killed by IDF attacks on Gaza since the ceasefire began. Israel has also refused to withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor, along the Gaza-Egypt border.

At the same time, Israel has significantly stepped up its operations in the West Bank, where about 40,000 people have been forced from their homes by a new assault on militant groups based in…